The roads are closing to re-election

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 22 Jul 2019 by Pavel Isa

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This is a crucial week in DR politics and the prospects for re-election are looking very bleak. It seems increasingly difficult to achieve it, and Medina is left with few alternatives. These are the facts: 1. The Medina group has not managed, so far, to get the votes it needs to pass a constitutional reform that enables the President to be a candidate for the third time. It may have the votes to approve the law that calls the Constitution Review Assembly. For that, it is required 50% + 1 of the votes of each chamber separately (the Senate has 32 members and the Chamber of Representatives 190), but to approve the reform, 148 out of 222 votes are required (two thirds of the Senate and the Chamber combined). Medina is very likely to count with 119 votes, but it is very unlikely that he can get the remaining 29 he needs. Only a serious fracture on either of the two large blocks (PLD-Leonel Fernández: 36 and PRM: 52) would allow him to add a part large enough to make the reform viable. So far, he has not achieved it and there is no reason to think he will achieve it. 2. Concentrations have been organized in the last two weeks to protest a possible constitutional amendment, and this past weekend a massive march was organized under the explicit slogan of removing the PLD from power. The perception is that the rejection of the constitutional reform has grown and that the internal conflict is weakening the PLD, while the opposition seems to be strengthening. 3. The US State Department reported that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke with President Medina about the political situation in the country and the need to preserve and strengthen democratic institutions. The Presidenc...