The run-up to the presidential elections

ARGENTINA - Report 13 Sep 2023 by Esteban Fernández Medrano

Today, the government will publish August CPI inflation data, which will be an interesting indicator of the current speed that a nominal devaluation of the official FX rate, without a convincing macroeconomic plan, translates into inflation. Expectations for monthly CPI inflation are close to 11% m/m, which would drive annual inflation to 121% y/y.

But in this report, we focus on the political outlook of the main candidates, reviewing some of the recent polls that suggest that Javier Milei has a chance of winning in the first round and the consequent changes in the candidates’ electoral strategies.

As the dust settles, after the surprising results of the recent primaries, in which against all odds the Libertarian Javier Milei (JM) managed with his embryonic party La Libertad Avanza (LLA) to lead voters’ preferences, the main candidates are now adapting their electoral strategies to get into the run-off presidential election in November. Even though current polls see Milei as further widening his lead, and some even see him with chances of winning in the first round (depending on the assumptions made about the absent voters), we still believe that the most likely outlook is one of a ballotage. Also, we believe there is still room for major change in the polls' projections, as in the coming weeks Milei will have to face the electoral machinery of the traditional political structure of the UP (Union por la Patria) and JxC (Juntos por el Cambio).

Now read on...

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