The Smell of the Rose

TURKEY - Report 04 Apr 2014 by Atilla Yesilada

Executive Summary“Sometimes victory is not about how well you have performed, but how poorly your rival did”—Cosmic StrategistFive days after the local elections, Turkey’s electoral supervisor, the High Election Council (HEC) is yet to announce the official results. We have two different vote tallies to analyze, as well as more than 50 major appeals to preliminary results, which may mean more ballot fraud than usual.We stick to our base-case scenario that AKP has not won with sufficient strength to guarantee a sweep of the presidential vote in August. Yet, we think Erdogan will soon declare...

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