The Surplus Budget Is Back in Early 2017
Following a massive spending campaign in December, the central government’s cash budget turned back into a seasonally unjustified, significant surplus in the first two months of 2017. The monthly surplus of February was especially notable, as it had no precedent in the previous fifteen years at least, and as extraordinary items are known to have played only a limited role in it. So for now, we think that the government budget has essentially returned to its strong trend seen in the pre-December months of 2016.
But despite the apparently tight budget, fiscal policy is still likely to loosen u