Politics: The transition and the next power elite
The prolonged transition period is about to conclude, and with it an unprecedented period characterized by both President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his allies in Congress taking precipitous and premature decisions and actions, initial signs of strains and conflicts within the incoming governing group and its party over their priorities, and the level of coordination between future cabinet ministers and members of Congress.
The initial actions the incoming government has taken betray serious internal conflicts within the governing team that extends to AMLO’s broader governing coalition, a motley mix of conflicting groups, outlooks and interests, all of which are bound together only by AMLO’s leadership. At least seven major groups within the AMLO camp are competing for López Obrador’s favor and backing for the interests they hope to advance.
And amid it all, AMLO and his team have provided us with a preview of the new style of governing they are likely to install. His penchant for a revived presidencialismo, the ploy of bogus public consultations to justify his own decisions, his use of conflict as a negotiating medium, his disregard for legality and institutions, and the discourse to create alternative realities are all essential parts of his toolkit as he acts with a troubling mix of ideology and pragmatism.
His clear majority in both chambers has unburdened him of any need to bargain with non loyal political forces in the new Congress and allowed him to fully exploit the transition period since July 2 less to plan strategy and design its main public policies than to jump the gun and start implementing them. In addition to canceling the Texcoco airport, he recently unveiled his security plan, a key piece of which will permanently militarize the fight against organized crime, and ordered his Morena party (rather than Inegi) to undertake a census of people eligible for some of his proposed social programs.
And in his dealings with business leaders we can anticipate a reshuffling of the power elites in Mexico, the ultimate outcome of which is impossible to fully anticipate at this point.
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