The Year of the Tin Rat: What can we expect?

PANAMA - Report 30 Jan 2020 by Marco Fernandez

This month China celebrates “the Year of the Tin Rat,” which promises wealth and welfare for families and businesses. The outlook for 2020 for Panama is consistent with this expectation, according to most analysts. The reasons for this optimism (and its downside) are discussed in our report. Positive notes: low inflation, GDP growth acceleration, fiscal discipline, and credit expansion. Not so-positive issues: increasing unemployment, a tight public investment program, water restrictions in the Panama Canal, and a financial crisis in the Social Security pension fund. Exports of copper will be the engine of GDP growth in 2020 (a quarter of the overall increase). Private construction (and related industries) will continue to stall. The fiscal consolidation promised by Minister Alexander for 2020 may require expenditure adjustments larger than anticipated.

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