Politics: Three new factors for the 2021 electoral race
Three developments of the last few weeks could significantly alter next year's electoral outlook. The first involves the leadership of the governing Morena party, not only from now until the 2021 midterms but also during much of the run-up to Mexico’s 2024 presidential contest. In a series of public opinion polls organized by electoral authorities, the left wing lost the party presidency to Morena congressional leader Mario Delgado, but the general secretary post went to Citlali Hernández, who is both backed by the far left and seems to be anxious to shore up party unity, although major tensions remain. In that regard, the organization may have a somewhat better chance to put its seemingly dilapidated house in order and prepare for the coming campaign.
That prospect looks all the more important considering our second factor: the extent to which Morena was defeated in the mid-October local elections in two states that have long been PRI bastions, Coahuila and Hidalgo, but where AMLO’s forces had been making significant inroads. Not only was Morena seen as totally unprepared for these contests, but the PRI’s resounding victories also suggest it may be much more of a factor next year than many observers expected.
The third factor involves the three parties that electoral authorities, more specifically the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF), decided to grant ballot status for next June’s federal, state and local elections, and the one to which it denied registration as a political party: Margarita Zavala and former President Felipe Calderón’s México Libre (ML). The arguments for approving the former, in part over objections by the National Electoral Institute, and rejecting the latter, appear spurious as ML was denied a place on the ballot for much less significant irregularities than the three that made the cut.
The National Action Party is thus spared competition next year from ML, most of whose members split after Zavala failed to win the PAN’s 2018 presidential nomination, and they complained of being frozen out of the party. But the three new parties may prove to be a Morena asset as they are all regarded as likely allies of President López Obrador.
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