Tomorrow never comes

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 23 Jun 2026 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

There were expectations that the Copom Minutes would help explain the evident gaps present in the statement released after last week’s meeting. There was no shortage of effort in this direction, but the results were not the best.

Recapping, both in the statement itself and even more clearly in the Minutes, the committee acknowledged the deterioration of the inflation outlook across all relevant dimensions: current inflation worsened, including underlying measures; expectations increased, even those for longer horizons; and, finally, the Central Bank’s own projection for the “relevant horizon” rose from 3.5% to 3.7%.

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