Too Close To Be Good
The latest polls published March 21st by four independent pollsters give Lenin Moreno, the official candidate an advantage of around 4% over Guillermo Lasso, the candidate from the opposition for the second round election that will take place next April the second.
Null and blank votes sum around 9% which is close to the historical outcome, and undecided voters sum around 16%. Thus, Lasso´s hope to catch up and beat this difference resides among this group, but the chance is small.
In any event, the polarization of the electorate is clear and poses a challenge for the Ecuadorian democracy if the difference shortens and neither candidate accepts the results. The social pressure exercised on February 19th, especially by “Quiteños” is a small sample of the social unrest that might emerge if the election is not clearly favorable to one of the candidates.
On the opposite side, after February 19th, President Correa showed once more his authoritarian ways and fired the three highest rank generals from the Armed Forces because they signed a statement requesting that the Electoral Court respect the people´s will on the election. The current commander from the Armed Forces in place is the only general who did not signed that petition. The response from the Armed Forces in case of the feared social unrest is also uncertain. Correa applied his motto of “divide and conquer” also among the military bringing face to face troops and high ranks.
However, governance would not be easy for neither of the candidates, but it would be much harder for Lasso. Alianza Pais has secured 75 legislators out of 132 in the Assembly obtaining absolute majority –albeit not the two thirds they currently have. And President Correa already announced that if the “opposition does not behave well” the Assembly will block any initiative he might present.
In the meanwhile, Ecuadorians deal with the expectation of getting some information on the corruption scandal involving Correa´s government officers and the Brazilian Oderbrecht –a scandal that has already reached several presidents and other public officials in Peru and Colombia, but that in Ecuador seems to be the best kept secret by the General Attorney. A secret that most probably will remain as such if Moreno wins.
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