Too much political news to digest

TURKEY - Report 16 Nov 2025 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The politics author is under a news bombardment, all interrelated, which will take a week or two to fully digest and to reflect to his current predictions. The week started with the 4K pages long indictment of Ekrem Imamoglu, which, most notably, included a request by the prosecutors to the Attorney General to investigate CHP as a locus of illegal activity. Yet, despite the draconian crimes listed in the indictment the Interior Ministry has thus far refrained from appointing a trustee to Istanbul. Why?
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Production indices paint a mixed picture regarding third quarter GDP growth, but economic activity might have expended slightly, quarter-on-quarter, we think. The CBRT Expectation Survey sees the policy rate at 27.5% by the end of next year down from a forecasted 38.5% by the end of this year, which seems a little too optimistic or inconsistent even, given that inflation is seen to decelerate to 23%, which is visibly above the upper band of CBRT’s yearend interim target (19%).

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