TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—An avalanche of impeachment proposals and the weakening economy to increasingly challenge Nikol Pashinyan
Misfortunes tend to occur in succession or clusters rather than in isolation, and this applies in full force to PM Pashinyan. Despite all the fanfare surrounding the March announcement that the draft peace deal with Azerbaijan had been finalized, nothing has been signed, while April brought about the painful loss in the important municipal elections in Gyumri. Pashinyan's presence at the Victory Day Parade in Moscow on May 9 was a sorry sight as the PM found himself with no friends of his own. As if this were not enough, the last two weeks have also seen a number of initiatives to impeach the PM in the Parliament.
While a constitutional mechanism exists for impeaching PM Pashinyan through a vote of no confidence, the current parliamentary mathematics make it challenging for the opposition to secure the necessary votes for success unless there is a significant shift in political allegiances. While I don't expect this at the current juncture, the larger picture is becoming increasingly dim for Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party, and the situation will only worsen as the 2026 Parliamentary Elections draw near.
The booming economy of 2022-2024 is no more as the one-off factors driving growth during that period have all but disappeared. The projected economic growth for Armenia in the state budget for 2025 is 5.1%, and the central bank sees a range of 4.5% to 7.0%, but the start of the year already points to downside risks to these projections. Economic considerations would thus join political considerations in putting pressure on Pashinyan in the pre-election year and beyond.
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