TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia set to overtake Azerbaijan in per capita GDP this year

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - Report 17 Apr 2026 by Ivan Tchakarov

Azerbaijan may have claimed military victory vis-a-vis Armenia, but the war on the economic front appears to have evolved along different lines as demonstrated by probably my favorite exercises in the CIS space, which encompasses the target Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region. Based on the just released April 2026 WEO, which has final 2025 PPP-based GDP data, I calculate per-capita GDP levels and 10-year GDP growth rates in order to rank individual economies in terms of their income levels and growth performance. More importantly, I also monitor progress in growth convergence with average EU per-capita incomes.

While year-to-year data tends not to generate re-ordering of income levels, as these take place over the course of a longer period of time, we are fortunate that the current 2026 year will be awarding us with one of those relatively rare changes in income level rankings. In 2026, Armenia is set to overtake Azerbaijan to become the 5th richest economy in the CIS in terms of average incomes. This may not serve as a full consolation to the recent war losses, but it is still a testament to the diverging rates of economic growth over the years that have favored Armenia.

Georgia is still the best in terms of improvement of per-capital levels (and growth convergence) as it is projected to surpass Belarus by 2028 to get the third place in the ranking, trailing only Russia and Kazakhstan. Armenia will be within a whisker of catching up with Belarus by 2031.

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