TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan's fiscal strategy 2027-2029 sees no FX drama

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - Report 31 Jul 2026 by Ivan Tchakarov

The Uzbek sum is set to bend, not break. This is how the new 2027-2029 Fiscal Strategy sees the UZS—no FX cliff, but a slow, controlled crawl. This makes Tashkent’s FX outlook almost boring, and that is the bullish part.

Uzbekistan’s new 2027–2029 Fiscal Strategy no longer publishes an explicit USD/UZS forecast, reflecting the shift toward a more flexible exchange-rate regime in which the sum is meant to absorb shocks rather than follow a declared path. Yet the strategy statement still embeds an implicit FX assumption: combining nominal GDP forecasts in sums with GDP-per-capita projections in dollars and reasonable population-growth assumptions allows the average exchange rate to be inferred.

The result is a remarkably benign path. Using the new census population base, the implied average USD/UZS rate strengthens from 12,581 in 2025 to about 11,858 in 2026, then weakens only gradually to roughly 12,400 by 2029—essentially back to its 2025 level. In other words, Tashkent is budgeting for a sum in cruise control: stronger near term, followed by only modest depreciation, supported by narrower fiscal and external imbalances.

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