TOPIC OF THE WEEK: What is Armenia's Pashinyan strategy to stay in power?
PM Pashinyan’s geopolitical equilibristics have left Armenia uncomfortably exposed in the ever-changing regional dynamics in the aftermath of the 3rd Karabakh War. The series of Russia-unfriendly steps undertaken by Pashinyan, including joining the International Criminal Court and suspending participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, among others, have generated a security vacuum that the PM naively intends to fill in by cozying up to France. Whether this short-sighted approach is driven by deeply thought-out policy or, simply, by brazen ineptitude is unclear, although there is no denying the fact that Pashinyan feels much more loved and pampered on the streets of Paris and Berlin than among EEU (CSTO) peers.
Adding to that Pashinyan’s poor ratings, one may only ask what strategy he intends to employ to steady his position. Pulling an à la Georgia stratagem, whereby the bright economic cycle is propping up the ruling party, will not pay dividends. In the case of Tbilisi, the economic prop has been usefully upgraded by a smart and balanced foreign policy as well as evidence of robust popular support for Georgian Dream. Neither of these is evident in the case of Pashinyan.
The only workable strategy for Pashinyan and the ruling Civil Contract, in our view, is to rely on the population’s apathy and lack of interest in going to the ballots in early or regular parliamentary elections. This, combined with mobilizing his own hard-core supporters on the basis of an increasingly vocal anti-Russia rhetoric, may actually result in a winning scenario for Pashinyan, as demonstrated in last year's mayoral elections in Yerevan.
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