Tough and eerie times
The 6.2 Richter scale tremor that shook Istanbul but caused very minor damage is a stark reminder that we are sitting on a time bomb. There is consensus among seismologists that Istanbul is due for a 7.2-7.4 quake “sometime in the future”. Of course, the question is when. On exact timing, experts are bitterly divided. Some claim the 6.2 was a precursor to the Big One, while others assert exactly the opposite, i.e., the quake released most of the stress in the active fault line, delaying the Big One for a decade or more. The politics author is not scientifically equipped to distinguish between the scenarios. The best he can advise is to watch the aftershocks. If these are moving north-east, we may be in trouble.
Moving to domestic politics, the sting operation against Istanbul Municipality escalated last week, with 47 new arrests, comprising of top city bureaucrats. The politics author claims that Erdogan is determined to take over the city via a trustee, because he wants to build Canal Istanbul and raze 300K buildings per annum to quake-proof the city. Both of these are mostly pork-barreling projects to feed his cronies. Imamoglu is the leading crusader against both projects, the release of whom could turn the public opinion against Erdogan once again. CHP now thinks there is a considerable likelihood of Istanbul being turned over to a trustee.
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