Truck traffic, Covid-19 and the economy in China

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 20 Jan 2021 by Andrew Collier

There is continued debate about the severity of Covid-19 in China, and more generally, about the accuracy of the country’s economic data. The latest WHO visit to China starting on January 14 to assess the source and impact of Covid-19 has continued to raise questions about the transparency of the Chinese government. China delayed the team’s entry and their conclusions appear to be soft-pedaled.

In contrast, in late December a group of economists released a paper using data on truck traffic that provides a cross-reference on both the severity of the virus and its economic impact on China. The paper, “The Economic Impact of Covid-19 in China: Evidence from City-to-City Truck Flows", was published by four economists from Tsinghua, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Princeton, and the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing (Chen et al.). They analyzed GPS data from a single company on 1.4 million heavy trucks operating in 336 out of 342 Chinese cities. Truck flows are highly correlated with the economy because highway traffic accounts for 73 percent of freight traffic in China.

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