Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, the Executive and Legislative branches continue to negotiate on the IOF tax hike, and a new poll showed that Tarcísio would easily be re-elected as SP governor in 2026

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 10 Jul 2025 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday that he will impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian products starting August 1—a drastic increase that followed harsh criticism of President Lula’s domestic and foreign policies. Trump stated that if Brazil retaliates against the U.S., he will add the retaliatory percentage to the existing 50%. Meanwhile, negotiations between the Executive and Legislative branches over the Financial Operations Tax (IOF) are in full swing. The administration has stated it will not back down from increasing the IOF. Yesterday, a new poll by Paraná Institute showed that Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) would easily win re-election as São Paulo governor in 2026, with support exceeding 44%. According to the poll, no current candidate poses a threat to his re-election.

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