Trump-Erdogan phone summit: Lost in translation

TURKEY - In Brief 25 Jan 2018 by Atilla Yesilada
Turkish Forces, aided by Free Syrian Army (FSA) brigades are gradually encircling the Kurdish-majority Afrin province of Syria in Northwest. Clashes are getting fierce by the day with casualties mounting on both sides. Afrin invasion is only the beginning of Turkey’s long and arduous adventure in Syria. The next target for Turkish Forces will be the city of Manbij currently controlled by PYD-YPG and U.S. forces. This plan obviously concerns the White House. President Trump called Erdogan on Wednesday night to read him the riot act. While sides dispute the content of the phone exchange, the message is clear. Washington wants Ankara to stop in Afrin. What will happen next? Ankara will move East, rubbing shoulders with G. I. Joe Ankara’s Syria game-plan envisions purging the heavily fortified town of Afrin from YPG-PKK militia, and then to move to the city of Manbij, at the shore of Euphrates river. Finally, it aims to break the back of the PYD-YPG as a political entity by attacking its population centers East of Euphrates. While I can argue at length about the wisdom of this policy vs. befriending Kurds, or replacing them as the primary U.S. ally in Syria, it would be futile, because I don’t foresee Ankara giving up on its plans to end the threat of terrorist infiltration from a PYD-YPG governed Syrian Kurdish state. Afrin is not important to American plans, but there is a military contingent in Manbij. Furthermore, Pentagon needs PYD-YPG east of Euphrates to cut off the links between Shia militia penetrating Syria from Iraq and Assad forces moving from west and north. A contiguous “Shia Crescent” spanning from Tehran to Lebanon could put severe pressure on Israel, as we...

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