Trump's UN comments indicate a lack of enthusiasm for a conflict with Iran

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 24 Sep 2019 by Justin Alexander

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World leaders will be trying to shape the global discourse over the Middle East at the UN General Assembly in New York this week, and perhaps even talking with Iran. Trump was the first to the podium this morning. He repeated criticism of Iran, blamed it for the Saudi attacks and said "As long as Iran's menacing behaviour continues, sanctions will not be lifted. They will be tightened", calling on other nations to also squeeze it. However, he only spent only about 15% of his address on Iran (starting at about minute 13 here), didn't make any new threats or seek to lay out the arguments for military action, and instead offered the prospect of friendship, noting that "many of America's closest friends today were once our greatest foes". By contrast, back in 2002 George W. Bush focused almost entirely on Iraq in his General Assembly address, as he laid some of the foundations for the 2003 invasion. This reinforces our analysis that Trump is not enthusiastic about the prospect of a conflict with Iran, espacially after Abqaiq.Turkey's president is speaking now and Qatar's Emir will come in about an hour, followed by Jordan's King a bit later. Others who will probably have contributions relevant to Iran and the GCC are France's president, speaking this afternoon (who is seeking to be a mediator and will meet Rouhani today), and then this evening the British prime minister (who seems to be moving away from the European stance against sanctions and towards the US position). We will discuss any relevant developments from their contributions in our conference call tomorrow (8am EST, 1pm London, 4pm Dubai), registration details here. Other regional leaders, including the Iranian ...