Trump visit and Bahceli outburst

TURKEY - In Brief 02 May 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

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Turkish politics is getting more complicated by the minute, which is reducing visibility and raising risk premiums. To say the last thing first, regardless of the High Election Council(HEC) ruling on Istanbul elections, I expect this state of affairs to continue through summer months. Apropos Istanbul elections, I, like our esteemed President Erdogan remainundecided as to the outcome. The outburst by MHP leader and Erdogan’s stalwart ally Mr. Bahceli is the new variable that needs to be added to the witches brew of factors which will motivate Erdogan’s decision on how much pressure to apply on HEC to rule against CHP mayor-elect Mr. Imamoglu. But, I wish to start by addressing the largest threat to economy and political stability looming on the horizon, namely the escalating tensions with US. Yesterday, sources close to the Presidency leaked to the media that President Trump will visit Turkey in July, after a phone call between two presidents on Tuesday. I can’t confirm this information through the American press and find it extremely difficult to imagine unless Ankara capitulated on taking delivery of S-400 anti-missile systems.Why would Trump visit Turkey during the month when it takes delivery of a Russian weapons system, possibly amidst loud pomp and circumstance to celebrate “military independence from US”? I consider this leak another ill-fated attempt to calm down the currency market, which is at the verge of a nervous break-down, as Turkey and US clash on yet another indictment of an American consular staff on terrorism charges, Trump’s plans to label Moslem Brotherhood a terror organization and widely diverging views on Iran and now Venezuela. It is fair to sa...