Turkey’s other quake

TURKEY - Report 05 Mar 2023 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Coming on the heels of a devastating earthquake, IYIP’s abrupt departure from the main opposition grouping Nation Alliance, added a new layer of uncertainty to the outcome of presidential and parliamentary elections. IYIP leader Aksener’s motivations for the 11th hour withdrawal remain obscure, but IYIP joining the reigning Republic Alliance or returning to the Nation Alliance are very low-probability scenarios. IYIP might nominate Aksener for the presidency, while the Nation Alliance will most likely field Kilicdaroglu in a few days.

In as much as the number of unknowns and paucity of data on the quake and Aksener effects cast a deep shadow on the future, the politics author provides three election scenarios, along with his view of what is likely. Needless to say, these scenarios, given that more aftershocks are likely in the coming days and the impact of this particular “quake” is yet to be fully manifested in the polls, are tentative and most certainly subject to change. For the impatient, the politics author doesn’t expect recent developments to change the outcome of presidential elections, while Turkey may have to face a hung parliament.

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