Turkey’s Stable Disequilibrium

TURKEY - Report 01 Jun 2014 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive SummaryJune will witness the selection of presidential candidates by major parties. We bet on Erdogan for AKP, but the opposition is yet to find viable champions. We still assign 65% chances to an Erdogan victory, citing three major reasons: No cross-party votes in either round, the possibility of sudden negative shocks, such as new Gezi-like nationwide protests, and the failure of ongoing negotiations with the Kurdish Axis, which are yet to yield official support for Erdogan.Looking beyond the presidential elections, we predict that Kurds and Alevites will drive home their demand...

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