​Turkish politics to remain under heavy fog

TURKEY - In Brief 04 May 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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I don’t intend to turn this website into a daily blog, but stability in Turkish politics is evaporating very rapidly. I felt it incumbent upon myself to warn my readers that according to some news outlets premier Davutoglu might offer his resignation to president Erdogan tonight. While I find these claims premature at this stage of the game, another news story in Reuters claims AKP is preparing for snap election in August, which is very certain to attract the markets’ attention. Cosmic Strategist thinks the rally in Turkish assets is over. The EM backdrop is deteriorating too, but Tuesday’s panic sell-off in Turkish assets was mostly driven by domestic political developments, which highlighted a nasty power struggle between Erdogan and Davutoglu. During the day, speaking to his party caucus, the PM said that he would turn down any earthly rewards instead of hurting his comrades or betraying the “cause”. While he was speaking, one of Erdogan’s numerous chief advisors was tweeting a picture which showed the following equation: Turkey = AKP = Erdogan Later in the day, one of MHP’s four presidential candidates Mr. Umit Ozdag stated that he was told by an AKP minister that the party was gearing up for snap elections in August. MHP’s leading challenger to Bahceli, Mrs. Aksener, too, voiced the same opinion. At about the time of the equity market close, Reuters Turkey e-mailed a story about the growing differences between Erdogan and Davutoglu, confirming the snap election story and going further one step: Erdogan was contemplating to dismiss Davutoglu. The story relied on interviews with several anonymous AKP deputies and ministers. I can’t find the original of the story in ...