Ukraine conflict has Central Asia worried

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Mar 2022 by Alex Teddy

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Central Asia countries are perturbed by the situation. Their economies are very integrated with Russia's. As Russia's economy is falling so will theirs. There were 8 million Central Asian migrant workers in Russia before the pandemic. Many of them lost their jobs. The remainder may lose their jobs if there is a depession. Remittances are vital to the economices of Tajikisatn and Kyrgystan in particular. In Kazakhstan there were pro-Ukrainian demonstrations that were dispersed by police. People driving cars with a Z symbol (indicative of a pro-Russian stance) have been fined. Central Asian countries have been studiously neutral on this dispute. Some Central Asians in Russia have been persuaded to join the Russian Army in return for their citizenship applications' being considered swiftly. It usually takes 10 years to attain citizenship and is too expensive for working class applicants. Central Asian countries abstained in the UN vote, or in the case of Turkmenistan made sure their ambassador went out of the room when the vote was held. These countries do not want to anger the West, either.Central Asia is worried that if Russia defeats Ukraine easily, then Moscow will try to subordinate them. Some Russian politicians in the last few years have said that Kazakhstan has no tradition of statehood. This is the rhetoric that presaged the Ukraine conflict. Conversely, if Russia is defeated that could mean that Russia goes into decline in the long term.