Ukraine’s ‘Spiderweb’ embarrasses Russia ahead of peace talks, could trigger a ballistic ‘Oreshnik’ response

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Jun 2025 by Alex Teddy
Report: Ukraine’s ‘Spiderweb’ embarrasses Russia ahead of peace talks, could trigger a ballistic ‘Oreshnik’ response Ukraine strikes Russian bombers, allegedly causing up to USD 7 bn in damage Russian domestic military commentators criticize security and intelligence failsPeace talks in Istanbul do not show progress towards peace, as Russia prepares to retaliate to one of the most embarassing operations of the war CONTEXT 2025 has seen Russian advances on the battlefield in Ukraine but also Ukrainian strikes all over Russia with drones and missiles, as well as covert operations by Ukrainian security services such as assassination and sabotage. Now, they have struck at a key Russian asset and one pillar of Russian national security by going after their strategic bomber fleet in an audacious raid that has destroyed irreplaceable Russian assets, along with other strikes. While flashy and humiliating for Russia this is unlikely to change the trajectory of the war in any meaningful way. Nonetheless, Russia’s retaliation options include the intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) known as Oreshnik, which could lead to a new escalation, and thus, adding another element of uncertainty to a war that has been going on for 40 months. BACKGROUND On May 25, Russia launched the largest missile attack of the war so far, with Moscow deploying 367 drones and missiles in strikes across Ukraine. Ukraine would follow this up by launching waves of drones into Russia. On May 27, Trump complained that Putin was not making efforts at peace and that without his help “really bad things” would have happened to Russia. This comment was made after Trump yet again got exasperated with Russia an...

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