Ukrainian conflict de-escalating

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Jul 2019 by Alex Teddy
On July 18 the Ukrainian Government agreed to exchange prisoners with the rebels. Ukraine is letting out 208 people in return for only 69 who will be released by the rebels. It seems the rebels are doing better out of this. The negotiations were brokered by the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk. Belarus acts as an honest broker in these talks. Belarus borders both Ukraine and Russia.A new ceasefire is due to start on July 21. There have been many ceasefires over the past 5 years. Most of them have been broken very soon. All this comes in the context of the legislative elections later this month. President Zelensky has vowed to recover every last millimeter of land. It is hard to see how he can do this without fighting. The rebels are not even talking about the possibility of submitting to Ukrainian authority again.Victor Medvedchuk met President Putin on July 18. Medvedchuk leads a party called Opposition Platform. He is the most Russia-friendly of all Ukrainian politicians. He is regarded as a traitor by Ukrainian nationalists. Meeting the Russian president plays well with some voters. However, Opposition Platform is probably only going to win 10% of the vote. Since the Ukrainian Government lost control of Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk most of the pro-Russian voters are excluded from elections.The erstwhile President of Ukraine Poroshenko said it was highly probable that Russia will release the 24 Ukrainian sailors who were captured in December. Poroshenko's implication is that Moscow would do so now to help Zelensky because they see him as weak and malleable. Poroshenko's prediction should not be given too much credence since a court in Russia extended the detention of...

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