Serene macro indicators face uncertain political events

URUGUAY - Report 20 Mar 2024 by Esteban Fernández Medrano

Uruguay's relatively calm macro indicators contrast with an environment of uncertain upcoming political events. Such political intensity is not only magnified by this year’s presidential election but also by the labor unions trying to reach, before the deadline on April 27, the required 280,000 signatures to call for a plebiscite to undo the reforms that recently modernized the pension system.

But despite those political uncertainties, Uruguay’s recent macro data reflects an economy that is managing, despite a slowdown in activity and cautious monetary policy, to maintain acceptable indicators. Those relatively benign macro indicators seem to suggest that the BCU is managing to implement a soft landing of the economy, i.e., lowering inflation while avoiding a harsh recession.

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