Uncertainty continues to rise

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 31 Mar 2016 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this issue:
• There seem to be a lot of rumors swirling around about the leadership, but Beijing is always filled with rumors, and the seeming intensification may just be a consequence of the political calendar. Next year, of course, is the 18th Party Congress, in which a whole range of important leadership slots will be filled.
• The real importance of these rumors may be in how they should affect the uncertainty around which we judge events. They should increase it.
• In China, debt remains the key issue, and it is worrying that there seems to be increasing pushback by many economists, Chinese and foreign, about how serious it is, because anything that reduces the urgency with which Beijing must tackle the debt is bad for the Chinese economy.

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