​Understanding domestic politics: Successions, support, sects and settlers (part 1)

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 11 Oct 2019 by Justin Alexander

This is the first in our series of "Understanding the Gulf" background reports. Pending successions are creating uncertainties in Kuwait and Oman that have unsettled policymaking. Four states have partially-elected parliaments (all except Saudi and Qatar) but none have executive powers and so they generally focus on protecting immediate benefits for their constituents, often at the expense of fiscal discipline. Only the three wealthier states (Qatar, UAE, Kuwait) have the capacity to indefinitely maintain the social support which underlies the implicit contract between Gulf monarchies and their citizens. Only Bahrain and Saudi have seen sectarian conflict in recent years. There is also potential scope for divisions in Oman and Kuwait, whereas Qatar and UAE have more uniform demographics. Migrants are sometimes viewed as a threat to the status quo in the Gulf, particularly longstanding Arab settlers who might aspire to citizenship.

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