Unexpected results in the Primaries - Game Over for Macri?

ARGENTINA - In Brief 12 Aug 2019 by Esteban Fernández Medrano

The results for the government in the obligatory, simultaneous primary elections (PASO) have been much worse than expected. The Kirchnerists obtained a landslide victory, in particular for candidates for president and governor of the province of Buenos Aires, i.e., the two most critical electoral victories. With close to 99% of the votes accounted for, Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Kirchner obtained 47.8% of the votes to become the official candidates for the presidential elections in October, while the Macri-Pichetto tandem only managed 32.1%, followed in a distant third place by Lavagna-Urtubey with 8.2%. Finally, Del Caño obtained 2.9%, followed by Gomez (from Frente NOS) with 2.6% while Espert only received 2.2%. Also very compelling has been Kiciloff’s support in the province of Buenos Aires with 49.3% compared to 32.7% for Vidal. The 16.6% lead of the Kirchnerists is, in this case, even broader than on a national level, despite the fact that Vidal’s results in the province have been better than that of Macri, who only obtained 29.9% of support in this district. Strictly speaking, these primaries were not much more than a national poll, as most key electoral positions were already defined ahead of time. Yet the 15.7% lead of the Kirchnerist over the government seems almost irreversible from here to the actual elections in October. In fact, if such results repeated themselves in the presidential elections, the Fernández-Fernández tandem would win in the first round, leaving Macri without the possibility to try to convince third party voters to support him in a second round. Recall that to win the presidency in the first round the candidate needs either 45% of the ...

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