​US sanctions bill has fangs, will it pass?

TURKEY - In Brief 11 Oct 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

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All wars are lost by the poor. It is their houses which get bombed. They flee cities in thousands with their meager belongings on their weary shoulders, with their children sent to frontlines or the front of the firing squads.War in North East Syria is spreading its tendrils like a cancerous cell in many dimensions, of which some I don’t even pretend to comprehend. While I enter the deep-thought mode for the Weekly Tracker, I pen this Market Brief on Graham-van Hollen (GvH) sanctions bill before markets close on Friday because I sense there is a deep discord between my perception of political-economic risk and participants’ pricing of it. The full text of the GvH is to be found in Axios, linked here. There are three articles which I consider extremely harmful to Turkish economy and politics, though I’d admit the phrasing is somewhat vague. First, “Sanctions any foreign person or entity who supplies goods, services, technology, information, or other support that maintains or supports Turkey’s domestic petroleum production and natural gas production for use by its armed forces”. While the target seems to be Russia and Iran, this could presumably encompass Turkish fuel distributors and refineries, as well as electricity producers and any third party which sells parts or supplies to them. If interpreted broadly, this article could kill any investment in Turkey’s energy industry. Secondly, it re-introduces CAATSA sanctions within 180 days.This should be familiar ground to most of our readers. There are 11 item on the menu, of which 5 are picked by the President. While these could be the lightest running to the trivial in terms of economic impact, seeing how Trump blows cold...