Politics: Voter support for Xóchitl slips while that of Claudia and Morena may have run up against a hard ceiling
This week we are releasing the results of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly poll of registered voters on the general situation of the country and electoral preferences. It delivered results very similar to those of last September, but the numbers that departed from the results of three months ago may be useful for anticipating how voting intentions are likely to evolve during the election campaign.
Claudia Sheinbaum is still ahead of Xóchitl Gálvez in the presidential race by 52% to 30%, and the distance separating the two grew from 19 to 22 points. For practical purposes, between September and November the race stagnated, which is positive for Sheinbaum and negative for Gálvez not so much because of the numerical difference but because almost three months have passed without her being able to eat into Claudia’s lead; on the contrary, it increased slightly. Perhaps the only good news for the opponents of Morena and the President is that Claudia did not grow her voting intentions.
One of the most noteworthy results from our polling is that support for Morena may have peaked in March at 49% before slipping between 5 and 7 points in November, with those voters migrating to the undecided camp. If this is borne out, it would mean that going forward Morena has no more room to expand its support no matter how much money is distributed through government programs. Presidential approval also decreased seven points to 55%, which could reflect, in part, the administration’s poor handling of Hurricane Otis, as well as perceptions of the economy that have been considerably more subdued in the last two quarters.
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