Politics: Voters more critical, AMLO approval drops

MEXICO - Report 21 Sep 2020 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

The latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey of opinion among the country’s registered voters recorded a continuing shift toward increasingly negative perceptions of the current state of the country and the extent to which the economic crisis is upending people’s lives six months into the pandemic. Since our last direct interview late in the first quarter, the percentage of poll respondents reporting that the general economy and their household finances have worsened over the past year jumped 16 and 15 percentage points, respectively.

Such negative sentiments regarding the current state of the country extend to a growing sense of frustration, concern and anger. Whereas roughly half of respondents said they felt hopeful during the first quarters of AMLO’s time in office, fewer than a fourth of them are as upbeat today. On many issues covered in the survey, the share of citizens offering negative perceptions of the current state and probable direction the country is headed in is approaching or surpassing the dismal numbers that prevailed throughout the final year of the previous administration. And the feeling that political conditions, corruption and public insecurity are all worsening has also fueled the erosion of public support for the administration. A plurality describe the pandemic as raging out of control. And more troublesome for the president going forward, almost two thirds of citizens say their incomes have fallen significantly under pandemic-related confinement practices.

But some factors have helped avert a further erosion of support for the president. When we cross reference people’s occupational situation with presidential approval, AMLO is underwater among those working or unemployed and looking for a job, but he retains positive ratings among those less exposed and/or benefiting from government support programs, such as students and pensioners. But more tellingly, when asked how much progress AMLO’s government has made on key issues, for the most part he gets high marks from fewer than 10%.

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