Voting preferences shifted in Tisza's favour in March

HUNGARY - In Brief 01 Apr 2026 by Istvan Racz

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Following a relatively long intermission, voting preferences measured in opinion polls appeared to shift again in March, the result being an increasing lead for Tisza against Fidesz. Eventually, five out of the seven leading pollsters - Idea, Median, Republikon, Závecz (ZRI) and 21 Kutató - published national polls on domestic voters' party preferences, and all measured an increasing lead for Tisza. On average in these surveys, support for Fidesz fell to 29.8% of the whole population eligible to vote, from 31.3% in February, whereas Tisza's support base rose to exactly 40%, from 39% in February. The undecided crowd was measured at an average 21.6%, up from 18.7% in February, not least because some former Fidesz supporters fell back to that category in recent weeks.  Here is our usual chart of the monthly development of voting preferences between April 2022 and March 2026:The range for Tisza's lead against Fidesz was 6-16%-points in the polls mentioned above, averaging at 10.2%-points, up from the previously typical 6%-points Tisza advantage. Within that range, Republikon's 6%-points still appears drawish, for reasons we explained earlier, ZRI's and Idea's  8-9%-points seem to tilt moderately in Tisza's favour, but should Median and 21 Kutató, two of the best pollsters prove right with their 16%-point and 12%-point results, respectively, the only question would be with how big a victory Tisza would achieve. Median's result would most probably mean a 2/3 parliamentary majority for Tisza, whereas 21 Kutató's somewhat less extreme result would imply 129 seats for Tisza, 64 seats for Fidesz and 6 seats for Mi Hazánk, a Fidesz ally. This latter one would be just short of a 2...