Waiting for (a bunch of) Godot(s)
At home, President Erdogan broadened his war against CHP with the specter of a closure suit against the latter, new probes against city mayors and ongoing recruitments.
As the politics author stated in last Sunday’s Weekly, Erdogan is waiting to see how the Iran War (or the Gulf Conflict) ends as well as its impact on Turkish foreign policy and economy, to start the final showdown.
But time is running short for Erdogan, with the Peace Process stuck, MHP bleeding in the polls and ever-larger constituencies clamoring for hefty mid-year pay hikes.
Production indices for the first quarter of the year suggest sequential GDP growth might have remained positive in the quarter, while there was not much sign of widespread weakness in March data as such, notwithstanding the noisiness of the monthly data.
April (accrual) budget data corroborated the cash results, broadly speaking, showing that there was some deterioration in the month, with spending growth visibly outpacing revenue growth.
The CBRT’s May Survey showed that analysts are revising their forecasts – for the worse – to reflect the new post-war realities, but we still find them optimistic in some respects.
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