We calculate an 18% downturn in the economy for 2020 and a rebound of 4.7% for 2021

PANAMA - Forecast 01 Feb 2021 by Marco Fernandez and Alex Diamond

We calculate a decrease in real economic activity of 18% for 2020. According to our estimations, construction (public and private) and related industries, retail trade, tourism, the Colon Free Zone, international transportation, banking, and energy production accounted for most of the recession. Canal transits also decreased, but government services, seaports, bunkering, agriculture and wholesale trade increased. This estimate is more pessimistic than that of the IMF in its recent PLL (-9%) but close to that of the EIU (-17%) and several rating agencies. Our preliminary forecast for 2021 reflects a rebound of only 4.7% (lower than our previous estimate of 7.4%).

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