Weekly Tracker: May 17-23

TURKEY - Report 17 May 2015 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Executive Summary

With three weeks left to the ballot date, opinion polls mostly reflect the political bias of the polling company, rather than the reality. We stick to our forecast of a weak AKP victory, with HDP making it to the parliament. Yet, it is quite possible that voters are lying to pollsters, or the latter are lying to us.What then? Could AKP votes be overestimated?

March current account deficit was higher than expected, leading to a rather significant increase in the 12-month rolling number, but this should reverse again in April. More importantly, though, t...

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