24 May 2015
by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary The recent batch of poll data indicates that the two heroes of the election, namely AKP and HDP are stalling, while the main opposition party CHP has gained momentum. Based on the new data and our momentum analysis, we revised our election estimates and post-election scenarios. While a weak AKP victory is still the most likely scenario, it only commands a 45% probability. The odds for a hung-parliament may be as high as 35% now. This week’s growth indicators suggested that the worst is probably over for the economy, but the recovery, if any, is rather weak through Q2, with...
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