Weekly Tracker: May 3-9

TURKEY - Report 03 May 2015 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary We reviewed the latest polls and revisited our scenarios. In 6 recent polls that we find credible, AKP is firmly in the lead but HDP makes it to parliament by the skin of its nose, while CHP is treading water. Nevertheless, poll momentum suggests that short-lived coalition governments or even a hung-parliament are now within the realm of possibilities. In Iraq, Turkey is getting lucky. In Syria, it is getting dirty. PKK may have changed its promise to hold a permanent cease-fire convention. We now think mass arrests of Gulen Congregation members are likely, which may furth...

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