What Appears and What is Hidden in the GDP Numbers for the First Quarter?
We have In the first quarter of 2021, GDP grew by 1.2%, leaving a carry-over of 4.9% to the year, prompting revisions of the growth forecasts for 2021. Some projections are as high as 5%, a rate that, depending on the circumstances, might well be achieved, but it is dependent upon a possible electric energy crisis, whose probability of occurrence is high. In particular, the data show the strength of agriculture, with growth of 5.7%, and deceleration of industry, which grew by 0.7%, less that in the preceding quarter (1.6%), even with the contribution from the extractive industry (+3.2% after falling by 5.2% in the previous quarter). The strong growth of agriculture and the extractive industry is evidence of the force of the external “tail wind”, which through the expansion of global trade and rise of commodity prices has been expanding aggregate demand.
However, these results are hidden in the GDP statistics due to the regularization of the recent importation of platforms, which once again has caused spurious elevation of gross fixed capital formation and an equally fictitious reduction of the contribution of net exports. After a brief incursion to compare the results of agriculture, industry and services, we analyze the perspectives for growth of household consumption in light of: a) the alterations in the composition of consumption between goods and services and the huge accumulation of savings (which in our opinion is a phenomenon still in search of a convincing explanation); and b) the weakness of the job market and the loss of spending power provoked by the growth of relative food prices.
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