What are the Signs of Economic Activity?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 May 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

With the release of the IBC-Br for March, we have virtually all the economic activity indicators for the first quarter of 2016, making it possible to estimate GDP in the first three months. The conclusion is that it contracted by roughly the same as in the last quarter of 2015. However, our leading indicator points to an impending reversal, suggesting an increase in the probability that recovery will start – very slowly – in the second half of the year.

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