What to look for in Sunday’s primary elections?

ARGENTINA - In Brief 11 Aug 2023 by Esteban Fernández Medrano

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Contrary to previous primaries ahead of presidential elections, which, more often than not, were mere national polls with hardly any impact on who would be the main candidate, this time around, the primaries will have a more significant role in deciding Argentina’s electoral offer and with it, the political landscape for the years to come. This is not only true because of the obvious, i.e., that the opposition coalition, “Juntos por el Cambio” (JxC), will define who will be its presidential candidate (with good chances of becoming the next president), and the candidate for governor of the province of Buenos Aires (with fewer chances, but still competitive), but also because in light of the observed apathy of the average voter about participating in political polls, there is a larger-than-usual uncertainty regarding the electoral preferences. These primaries will therefore define the opposition’s main candidates and shed light on the current electoral mood. Even though the participation rate in the primaries will most likely be low (if we take the recent provincial elections as an indicator it will be even lower than in 2015), they will still give a much more precise picture of the voter's preferences than the heterogeneous polls seen over the last few months. What to focus on? At JxC, the election of the presidential candidate is expected to be a relatively close call between the Pro candidates, Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, with the former usually seen in the lead. From the government's perspective, Sergio Massa (SM) runs, in principle, with a strong advantage against leftist Juan Grabois. Although the depreciating market FX rate and the strong infl...