Politics: With only marginal shifts in GEA-ISA’s latest presidential race poll, Xóchitl faces major challenges in the final 10 weeks

MEXICO - Report 18 Mar 2024 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen for a second consecutive quarter, and opposition presidential nominee Xóchitl Gálvez recouped three points of voting intentions, according to the latest GEA-ISA nationwide quarterly poll of registered voters. Mexico was only 24 hours into the general election campaign when we began our March 2-6 survey.

Overall, it has to be said that support for the President has held up surprisingly well given his dismal track record in matters of domestic security and public health, the continuing accusations of corruption and influence peddling by his sons, and successive waves of international media reports of organized crime having helped to finance his 2006 and 2018 presidential campaigns. But with incumbent party nominee Claudia Sheinbaum’s chances highly dependent on the President’s popularity, any further erosion of public support for him could prove treacherous for the Morena campaign.

All told, support for Gálvez rose 3 points at the expense of Sheinbaum, but among decided voters Claudia’s edge over Xótchil inched a point higher, to 20 (58% to 38%). Although Gálvez's campaign has shown more initiative and drive than that of Sheinbaum, she has failed to seriously cut into the incumbent candidate’s commanding lead. With less than 75 days of campaigning remaining, she will have to devise new approaches. She will not only need to perform extremely well in the three presidential debates, with the first scheduled for April 7, but she may also have to take a page out of Felipe Calderon’s successful 2006 negative ad campaign, which allowed him to erase a 10-point AMLO lead on his way to the presidency.

This week we analyze our latest polling data. Looking ahead, our campaign coverage will continue to include analysis of all major polling results, as well as two special surveys GEA-ISA will conduct between now and Election Day.

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