Woman power
As Simon Espinosa, a well-known and respected journalist and member of the anti-corruption commission, wrote, it has taken two women, Attorney General Diana Salazar and Judge Daniela Camacho to give Ecuadorians back some confidence in the formerly captive system of justice.
Over 20 cases of corruption including bribery, embezzlement, the overpricing of large public projects, etc., are now on course or have ended with exemplary sentences for the guilty. The most notorious and important case in the history of Ecuador, involving former President Rafael Correa and three of his ministers, just reached a happy ending for the country and a not-so-happy ending for the sentenced, who will have to serve eight years in jail and will be prohibited from participating in any political election for life.
This has left Centro Democratico without a vice-presidential candidate because of the loss of Correa. Rumors point to Pierina Correa, Correa's sister, and to Maria Elsa Viteri (sadly remembered former Minister of Finance) as possible candidates to accompany David Arauz.
The second half of this year brought more good news, as well. The successful bond renegotiation that reduced interest payments for this year by around $1.1b, and the staff-level agreement with the IMF for an extended financial agreement, have brightened the dark perspectives for this year and the next. Both events will increase liquidity for the next government and have already helped increase the country's credit rating, reducing country risk by 1900 bp in just one day and raising hopes for better days ahead.
In the meanwhile, the government must still transit a bumpy road to finish the year. Oil revenues are only 13% of the initial forecast, and tax collections fell $2b as thousands of businesses closed, taking unemployment and underemployment to unprecedented levels. On the other hand, floating debt reached close to $4b.
Thus, disbursements from China, and the Fund and multilaterals, will come to rescue a government that is the focus of protests and even legal action due to the arrears in transfers to local governments and social security, and to late salary payments to public officers – especially those from the health and education sectors.
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