Politics: Xóchitl vaults into the lead for the opposition nomination but major obstacles lurk ahead
As we have noted in recent weeks, Xóchitl Gálvez’s decision to jump into the race to become the opposition presidential candidate has shaken up a contest that had already started to evolve thanks to the efforts of civil society groups and others that brought hundreds of thousands into the streets last November and February and later succeeded in pressuring opposition parties to open up the nomination process rather than letting party heads pick the candidate among themselves. Armed with a compelling personal story, a maverick political trajectory and an appealingly folksy and humorous style, so far she has deftly countered an unrelenting barrage of attacks from President López Obrador and his supporters, who clearly see her as a potential threat to a Morena victory in 2024.
Just one month after she entered the race, she has leapfrogged her rivals for the Broad Front for Mexico nomination in both name recognition (even surpassing some who have been nationally prominent politicians for decades) and popularity. Based on the few reliable polls released in the past three weeks, her lead over her closest rival ranges anywhere from six points to 40%. And looking ahead to the general election, the same surveys show she is already within striking distance of the two people leading Morena’s nomination battle, Claudia Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebrard.
But despite such early momentum, she faces a long, steep road ahead. While she may resonate strongly with the general public, she is not the natural choice of the strongest parties in the coalition. Even if she gets the nod, she will have to work hard to keep the coalition together in the next 11 months and ensure that the PAN and PRI’s campaign apparatuses make a serious effort to promote her candidacy rather than just focusing on their respective down-ballot candidates.
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