Yet another surprise in the presidential election

ARGENTINA - Report 23 Oct 2023 by Esteban Fernández Medrano

Although, as expected, no presidential candidate won the election in the first round, and the two contenders will be Sergio Massa and Javier Milei, the fact that Massa managed to lead the electoral results by a significant margin was unexpected. While Bullrich and Milei signaled a potential electoral cooperation in the second round, Massa played his cards to attempt to break the JxC apart.

If Massa were to win, we would have to see if he resembles the Massa of the past four years or the one from before 2019. For now though, given the signaling game of the JxC and the LLA, it is not at all clear that Massa will be able to win. A victory by Milei, with the support of JxC (limiting Milei´s more extreme proposals), might be more long-term constructive.

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