ARGENTINA
Analyst
Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank PresidentDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Anchoring exchange-rate expectations for further inflation slowdown
ARGENTINA · Report · 16 Jul 2024
During the last few weeks there has been very good news on the course of inflation. But two sets of side effects of the stabilization policy create doubts about its sustainability: the widening of the gap between the blue-chip swap rate (CCL) and the official exchange rate (which many observers i...
From macroeconomic stability to trade and financial liberalization
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Jun 2024
The approval by the Senate of two legislative projects that the government needs to transition from macroeconomic stability to trade and financial liberalization without significant disruptions, the two-year extension of the swap with China for 5 billion dollars, the disbursement by the IMF of 80...
Faster-than-expected inflation deceleration in an environment of economic contraction
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 May 2024
In the third week of May, the trend towards stability in the informal foreign exchange markets was interrupted. There was an increase in the CCL exchange rate and in country risk for the first time since February. These changes may not signify a reversal of trends but rather a circumstantial a...
Inflation continues to trend downward. For this trend to solidify, the process of the removal of exchange controls must be clearly outlined.
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 May 2024
The monthly inflation rate reported by INDEC for April is expected to be around 8.5%, three percentage points higher than the estimates based on online prices. This disparity is attributed to adjustments in prices and utility tariffs previously heavily controlled and distorted by the former gover...
How close is the unification and liberalization of the exchange market?
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Apr 2024
Favorable financial indicators—the reduction of the gap between the official exchange rate and the pseudo-free exchange rates (the CCL and the "blue"), the accumulation of reserves and the decrease in country risk—are encouraging, but they should not be taken as indicators that the convergence of...
Milei’s first four months
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Apr 2024 · 1 response
In our previous monthly report, we used the reference to the movie “The Matrix” to conceptually illustrate the costly process of “awakening” an economy from its unsustainable macro policies. The economy would be awakened to a reality that is fiscally and monetary more sustainable, with better inv...
Patience and trust, with sticks and carrots
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Mar 2024
Friday night´s “Address to the Nation”, at the opening session of the Congress, was quite insightful for an event that is often used by presidents merely to praise their own mandates. Milei presented a broad-based overview of his immediate and medium-term political goals. All of these are, in gen...
The complex awakening from the Kirchnerist "Matrix"
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Feb 2024
Leaving aside Mauricio Macri’s four-year mandate, Argentina has been immersed over the last 23 years in an economic environment defined by taxing state interventions into basic individual economic decisions. Repeatedly, the “Kirchnerist” governments tackled macroeconomic imbalances by applying mi...
Government’s setback in Congress, Omnibus law returns to commissions
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024
In yesterday's Congress session, the government withdrew the Omnibus law from the debate in the Lower House and sent it back to the respective commissions for further discussions. This represents an important congressional setback, considering that the Omnibus law had already been trimmed, in pri...