Country Analysts

Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank President
Esteban Fernández Medrano
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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​Monetae Pax II
ARGENTINA - In Brief 15 Mar 2019
Although not genuinely unsurprising, February inflation data was still disappointing. The 3.8%m/m brought the annual rate to 51%y/y, accumulating 6.8% in the first two months of the year. As in January, the chief diver was not only utilities but also food. Moreover, once more a key component of t...

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Monetæ Pax
ARGENTINA - Report 04 Mar 2019
​As usual, at this time of the year, Argentine politics and economic activity wake up from their summer lull. Friday's opening of the ordinary 2019 congressional session was the official kick-off. President Macri’s State of the Union address was a firm defense of his government’s achievements, de...

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Detailed forecast for the Argentine economy 2019 and 2020
ARGENTINA - Forecast 07 Feb 2019
​This report complements the first quarterly forecast, entitled, “Argentina 2019: at a crossroad again” offering detailed projections for the most relevant variables for one of the three scenarios described in that forecast. We assume that Macri’s government will be able to fully implement the...

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Argentina 2019: At the crossroad again
ARGENTINA - Forecast 11 Jan 2019
The Argentine economy in Q4 performed at close to our previous forecast. For 2019 and 2020, we now present quantitative forecasts for two scenarios, and discuss a third scenario we cannot quantify. Finally, we will try to guess what political impact these three scenarios would have on the elector...

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Inflation is receding but political uncertainty keeps the risk premium high
ARGENTINA - Report 21 Dec 2018
​Monthly inflation went down in November and will probably recede even more in December. This is the consequence of the stability of the exchange rate that was achieved since the beginning of October when the Central Bank announced its constant monetary base target for the period October 2018 to ...

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Monetary arithmetic revisited
ARGENTINA - Report 30 Nov 2018
Local attention these days is naturally focused on the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires, which, from a geopolitical perspective, represents a genuinely historical event for Argentina, and in particular for the Macri administration. Holding the G20 presidency and therefore hosting the annual summit is p...

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Tough macroeconomic adjustment is supported by IMF program, while more severe stagflation raises political uncertainty
ARGENTINA - Forecast 29 Oct 2018
From the second week of August until the end of September, Argentina suffered its second currency crisis of the year, with the peso depreciating from 28 to 42 pesos to the dollar. The first currency crisis had happened at the beginning of May, and lasted until the end of June, when the price of t...

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Argentina Conference Call : On the road to stability?
ARGENTINA - Report 18 Oct 2018
​Will the record IMF package and the new monetary policy be sufficient to stabilize the peso and Argentina's debt markets over the medium term? How will the current turbulence impact the 2019 elections?​

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New IMF agreement and Monetary Policy
ARGENTINA - In Brief 27 Sep 2018
Yesterday, after local market closed, Treasury Minister Nicolás Dujovne announced, together with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, the new outline of the recently renegotiated Stand-by agreement. The agreement starts to have effect once the board of directors of the IMF approves it, which ...

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