Country Analysts

Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank President
Esteban Fernández Medrano
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Dangerous monetary arithmetic, version 2020
ARGENTINA - Report 26 Oct 2020
Capital markets remain concerned about Argentina’s economic and political outlook, despite the successful international debt swap and the more recent oversubscribed domestic dollar-linked debt placement. The failure of the long-term lockdown to avert the spread of the COVID virus and the conseque...

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​The government announced new dollar-linked debt
ARGENTINA - In Brief 02 Oct 2020
In a press conference, the Minister of Economy announced yesterday, accompanied by the Minister of Production Matías Kulfas, the Minister of Agriculture Luis Basterra, the head of the local IRS (AFIP) Mercedes Marcó del Pont and the Deputy Chief of Cabinet Cecilia Todesca new economic measures ai...

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A self-made perfect storm
ARGENTINA - Report 18 Sep 2020
​A climate of dialogue and cooperation among the main political forces in March allowed the harnessing of support from a large majority of the population, to implement lockdowns that helped dampen the pace of infections and deaths. This early action allowed time to reinforce the health care syst...

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Political climate deteriorates and recession worsens despite the agreement with foreign bondholders
ARGENTINA - Forecast 10 Aug 2020
The successful restructuring of the government debt has reduced the risk of a disorderly default during Alberto Fernández’s presidency. But in all other respects, the political climate and economic prospects have deteriorated since our May 18th forecast. By mid-May it seemed that the governme...

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Which is the final offer?
ARGENTINA - Report 25 Jul 2020
As the August 4 deadline for the debt swap comes closer, the question that remains is whether the government is going to stick to its latest proposal, presented on July 7, or if it will revise it once again. According to official statements, the government seemed to have decided, this time around...

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Argentina webinar featuring Esteban Medrano - A debt restructuring during the pandemic
ARGENTINA - Report 11 Jun 2020
Argentina webinar featuring Esteban Medrano - A debt restructuring during the pandemic. Esteban Medrano discusses Argentina's macro situation in the face of the pandemic, as well as scenarios for the restructuring.

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The formal default approaches
ARGENTINA - Report 20 May 2020 1 response
In our May 14 report, we pointed out that the government had passed the ball to the bondholders and was waiting for a counter-proposal to further advance in the current tense debt negotiations. Effectively, local authorities sought more precise definitions from creditors and also to sense how far...

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Recession deepens and inflation is momentarily contained, but monetary expansion raises the risk of inflationary explosion
ARGENTINA - Forecast 18 May 2020
Quarantine and social distancing measures were implemented in Argentina mid-March, as soon as the initial COVID-19 infection cases were detected in people who arrived from abroad. So far, the early reaction has contained the number of coronavirus deaths to around eight per million inhabitants, we...

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The "chicken race" continues
ARGENTINA - Report 14 May 2020
As might have been expected, in this “chicken race” between the government and bondholders to restructure Argentina’s debt, in which both are trying to obtain the best possible deal, the first official proposal did not reach the needed majorities to reach an agreement. The fact that it was a u...

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