Country Analysts

Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank President
Esteban Fernández Medrano
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Cristina Fernández de Kirchner runs for vice-president
ARGENTINA - In Brief 20 May 2019
In a very professionally produced video, with a strong emotional language, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) confirmed this Saturday that she would run in August in the primary election for president with Alberto Fernandez, the former Chief of Cabinet during Nestor Kirchner’s mandate. The surp...

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Government tries to stabilize the exchange rate as expectations worsen
ARGENTINA - Forecast 29 Apr 2019 1 response
During the first quarter of 2019, the Argentine economy performed worse than expected by the government, by the IMF and by most private forecasters. Inflation was much higher than anticipated. The exchange rate, in pesos per dollar, began depreciating rapidly in March towards the upper limit o...

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Higher than expected inflation drives BCRA to announces new monetary measures
ARGENTINA - In Brief 16 Apr 2019
Today, during the IPOM presentations and shortly after March CPI was published by the INDEC (with a higher than expected monthly inflation rate of 4.7%m/m and an annual rate of 54.7%y/y), the BCRA announced new measures regarding the FX band and banking regulation, in an effort to control inflati...

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Some polls start to show Macri losing the presidential election
ARGENTINA - Report 16 Apr 2019
In our recent report “Struggling with Stagflation” we pointed out that the current administration is facing the difficult political challenge of overcoming a severe recession, with little time for the economy to bounce before the elections - or put differently, with only a short time for the vote...

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Struggling with stagflation
ARGENTINA - Report 12 Apr 2019
Macri´s political outlook into the October elections continues to face the challenge of overcoming adverse economic indicators. This is taking place despite the financial support of the IMF, whose USD 10.8bn tranche reached the BCRA reserves this week. The combination of very high inflation and a...

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​Monetae Pax II
ARGENTINA - In Brief 15 Mar 2019
Although not genuinely unsurprising, February inflation data was still disappointing. The 3.8%m/m brought the annual rate to 51%y/y, accumulating 6.8% in the first two months of the year. As in January, the chief diver was not only utilities but also food. Moreover, once more a key component of t...

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Monetæ Pax
ARGENTINA - Report 04 Mar 2019
​As usual, at this time of the year, Argentine politics and economic activity wake up from their summer lull. Friday's opening of the ordinary 2019 congressional session was the official kick-off. President Macri’s State of the Union address was a firm defense of his government’s achievements, de...

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Detailed forecast for the Argentine economy 2019 and 2020
ARGENTINA - Forecast 07 Feb 2019
​This report complements the first quarterly forecast, entitled, “Argentina 2019: at a crossroad again” offering detailed projections for the most relevant variables for one of the three scenarios described in that forecast. We assume that Macri’s government will be able to fully implement the...

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Argentina 2019: At the crossroad again
ARGENTINA - Forecast 11 Jan 2019
The Argentine economy in Q4 performed at close to our previous forecast. For 2019 and 2020, we now present quantitative forecasts for two scenarios, and discuss a third scenario we cannot quantify. Finally, we will try to guess what political impact these three scenarios would have on the elector...

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