Country Analysts

Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank President
Esteban Fernández Medrano
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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Argentina 2019: At the crossroad again
ARGENTINA - Forecast 11 Jan 2019
Executive Summary The Argentine economy in Q4 performed at close to our previous forecast. For 2019 and 2020, we now present quantitative forecasts for two scenarios, and discuss a third scenario we cannot quantify. Finally, we will try to guess what political impact these three scenarios would h...

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Inflation is receding but political uncertainty keeps the risk premium high
ARGENTINA - Report 21 Dec 2018
Monthly inflation went down in November and will probably recede even more in December. This is the consequence of the stability of the exchange rate that was achieved since the beginning of October when the Central Bank announced its constant monetary base target for the period October 2018 to J...

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Monetary arithmetic revisited
ARGENTINA - Report 30 Nov 2018
Executive SummaryLocal attention these days is naturally focused on the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires, which, from a geopolitical perspective, represents a genuinely historical event for Argentina, and in particular for the Macri administration. Holding the G20 presidency and therefore hosting the a...

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Tough macroeconomic adjustment is supported by IMF program, while more severe stagflation raises political uncertainty
ARGENTINA - Forecast 29 Oct 2018
From the second week of August until the end of September, Argentina suffered its second currency crisis of the year, with the peso depreciating from 28 to 42 pesos to the dollar. The first currency crisis had happened at the beginning of May, and lasted until the end of June, when the price of t...

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Argentina Conference Call : On the road to stability?
ARGENTINA - Report 18 Oct 2018
Will the record IMF package and the new monetary policy be sufficient to stabilize the peso and Argentina's debt markets over the medium term? How will the current turbulence impact the 2019 elections?

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New IMF agreement and Monetary Policy
ARGENTINA - In Brief 27 Sep 2018
Yesterday, after local market closed, Treasury Minister Nicolás Dujovne announced, together with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, the new outline of the recently renegotiated Stand-by agreement. The agreement starts to have effect once the board of directors of the IMF approves it, which ...

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Central Bank in coordination with the Treasury
ARGENTINA - In Brief 25 Sep 2018
While local economic activity is practically on hold today as the government suffers its fourth general strike lead by the labor unions (GCT), and the economic team lead by Dujovne re-negotiates with the IMF the Stand-by agreement, the market received the news that Central Bank President Luis Cap...

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Crisis management
ARGENTINA - Report 10 Sep 2018
Although the current financial crisis was triggered by an abrupt unwinding of LEBAC positions, as if the market finally accepted that its debt dynamic was unsustainable, the underlying cause of this crisis has always been the sustained fiscal deficit. The current government inherited this situati...

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​The end of fiscal gradualism
ARGENTINA - In Brief 03 Sep 2018
The economic turbulences of the last week which drove, among others, the FX rate above 40 AR$/US$, induced president Macri to give today a rather motivational address to the nation. He announced changes in its cabinet and Argentina's economic policy. In short, he proclaimed an acceleration in tim...