CHINA FINANCIAL

WANT IN-COUNTRY EXPERTISE TO HELP NAVIGATE AN EMERGING MARKET?

Country Analysts

Michael Pettis
Professor of Finance, Peking University

In The News

Recent Country Insights

Gsp report report thumbnail
Last year’s deep pessimism seems to have abated
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 19 Apr 2019 1 response
Special points to highlight in this issue: * While China’s first quarter GDP growth came in above expectations, at 6.4 percent year on year, this does not represent the recovery in the underlying economy that many analysts are claiming, not because the growth numbers are fake but simply bec...

Gsp report report thumbnail
How to think about Chinese medium-term growth prospects
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 15 Mar 2019
Special points to highlight in this issue: • China’s two national political sessions last week set off a largely expected series of announcements and a huge amount of analysis, with nothing fundamentally changing. Beijing still faces the same constraints and the same set of adjustment scenarios....

Gsp report report thumbnail
Are Chinese stock gains sustainable?
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 28 Feb 2019 2 responses
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Chinese stock market may well continue to deliver outsized returns for the rest of 2019, and if I had to bet, I would bet that it will perform well, but the recent rise has been all technical and there are no fundamental reasons driving the bull...

Gsp report report thumbnail
How to think about China’s Year of the Pig
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 24 Jan 2019
Special points to highlight in this issue: • On February 5, the Year of the Pig begins. This is supposed to be a good year for making money, especially in the stock markets, and it may well turn out to be true, but only because the past year has been so miserable and Beijing may be thinking of ...

Gsp report report thumbnail
December’s economic work conference
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 21 Dec 2018
Special points to highlight in this issue: • The annual Economic Work Conference ended today, and Beijing has released the official statement summarizing the event. It said most of the things we expected it to say. In 2019 Beijing will continue to try to walk the impossibly fine line between sti...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Why isn’t the US a trade-surplus economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 07 Nov 2018 1 response
Special points to highlight in this issue: • In a well-functioning world of global trade, the US should either run a more-or-less balanced trade account or it should run persistent trade surpluses. In standard trade theory, it is the norm for rich, mature economies with high income levels and ef...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Bad news for China from Brazil; no news in the Chinese data
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 31 Oct 2018
Special points to highlight in this issue: • Jair Bolsonaro’s election Sunday as President of Brazil is not, at least on paper, especially good news for China. The “tropical Trump” has attacked China consistently in his speeches, but even if he has no intention of following through, to the exte...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Is rising household debt helping China to rebalance?
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 02 Oct 2018 1 response
Special points to highlight in this issue: * It is not meaningful to refer to a rebalancing of the Chinese economy if the growth in the consumption share of GDP is powered by rising household debt. The goal of rebalancing is to allow China to grow without a worsening of the country’s debt burden...

Gsp report report thumbnail
China’s highly distorted private equity funding
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 18 Sep 2018
Special points to highlight in this issue: • Economists usually try to evaluate a country’s debt position according to various debt ratios, but what often matters even more is how institutional distortions affect debt dynamics. China’s financial system is locked into a process in which excessiv...

Cookies help us deliver our services. By using our services, you agree to our use of cookies.