CHINA FINANCIAL
Analyst
Michael Pettis
Professor of Finance, Peking UniversityRecent Country Insights
No big surprises from the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2023
Special points to highlight in this issue: * We are halfway through the “two sessions” meetings of the NPC and CPPCC with many of the major speeches on the budget, economic policies, and economic prospects delivered. China will target GDP growth this year of 5 percent, although Chinese provin...
Will China’s property sector revive in 2023?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jan 2023 · 1 response
Special points to highlight in this issue: * After a terrible Year of the Tiger, the year of the Rabbit should be a year of recovery for the Chinese economy, driven by a partial reversal of last year’s contraction in consumption. I’ve been saying this for several months, however, and while I...
I don’t think anyone expected COVID to spread this rapidly
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 16 Dec 2022 · 1 response
Special points to highlight in this issue: * COVID is spreading so rapidly in Beijing and throughout China that I think everyone was caught by surprise. There is a rising consensus that government officials mishandled the opening up, and there are several explanations for what happened, and wh...
China’s new property measures don’t address the fundamental contradiction
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2022
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The trade and debt data releases last week, along with today’s economic data, indicate that there has been no change in October in the deterioration in the quality of Chinese growth. In fact the consumption share of growth declined in October even ...
The National Congress won’t matter to economic prospects as much as many think
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Oct 2022
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The leadership choreography of the National Congress left many people – both Chinese and foreign – increasingly worried about the economic outlook for China. While I have always expected a sharp slowdown in the years ahead and a very difficult adjus...
How will weaker export growth affect the Chinese economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Sep 2022
Special points to highlight in this issue: * Cargo rates for the rest of the year seem to be coming down sharply ahead of the Christmas holiday, suggesting that export growth may be declining rapidly because of weaker expected demand from the US and Europe. I have no way of knowing whether or ...
August’s better domestic demand was matched by worse property prices
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Sep 2022
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The data releases this week and last week reaffirm the story of the past several months. Output growth continues to be weak in spite of aggressive supply-side measures, while the growth in consumption has further stagnated. This is exacerbated by th...
August data shows a still-struggling economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Aug 2022
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The data releases this week and last week reaffirm the story of the past several months: the supply side of the economy is recovering slowly, thanks to aggressive fiscal and monetary support, while the demand side continues to struggle. * The P...
The Henan banking and mortgage crises, and what they might tell us
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jul 2022
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The crisis affecting a rural banks in Henan and Anhui, followed shortly after by a threatened mortgage boycott for apartments whose construction has been delayed, has renewed concerns about China’s property and banking sectors. These have both becom...