CHINA FINANCIAL

Analyst

Recent Country Insights

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Apr 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The property sector in top-tier cities may be close to bottoming out, although this is still far from the case in the rest of China. - Growth in March came in much stronger than expected, and drove first-quarter growth also above expectations,...

Not much came out of the Two Sessions

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Mar 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: • So far, I expect economic activity in 2025 to look a lot like economic activity in 2024. In 2025 we can expect a reduction in the astonishingly high contribution of net exports to GDP growth in 2024, balanced by an increase in the disappointingly l...

What does Xi’s meeting with entrepreneurs signal for the private sector?

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Feb 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Economic data releases in China tend to be skimpy in the first two months of every year, mainly because the floating Spring Festival date (from late January to mid-February) distorts economic activity and makes year-on-year and month-on-month comp...

China reported 5 percent GDP growth in 2024

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Jan 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The year 2024 ended pretty much as we had all more or less expected: GDP grew by 5 percent on the dot (almost literally on the dot), driven by surging exports and expanding production, and dragged down by very weak domestic demand. This means that...

What happened in the December Work Conference?

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: - The December Central Economic Work Conference ended with a series of promises but was short on details. In itself that is not a surprise, as the conference rarely sets detailed policy, and mostly discusses growth targets and the direction of polic...

How will a contraction in China’s trade surplus affect the economy?

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Nov 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: - As always, October data was mixed. While consumption growth may be picking up, it is still not enough to keep pace with slowing growth in production. The result was more CPI deflation and one of the biggest monthly trade surpluses in history. ...

Webinar replay: China's economic dilemmas

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2024

How important is a consumption stimulus for China? Why is it so difficult for China to rebalance its economy towards consumption? Will the central government use its borrowing capacity and clean balance sheet to revive local-government spending? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our ...

Waiting for the Man

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Oct 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * As we have come to expect in the past few months, September’s data release was disappointing, with the demand side struggling to keep pace with a not-especially-brisk supply side. Import growth was much weaker than export growth, and what little i...

What is happening with China’s long-dated government bonds?

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Aug 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * July’s data continues to indicate a sluggish economy, but it is important to add that even as overall growth is slowing, the quality of growth is also deteriorating. As I see it, “high quality” growth in China is the share of growth driven mainly ...