Country Analysts

Michael Pettis
Professor of Finance, Peking University

In The News

Recent Country Insights

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Hong Kong is distracting us from the growth and credit data
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 19 Aug 2019
Special points to highlight in this issue: * While nothing can be ruled out in such a politically complicated environment, the cost of a direct intervention by forces loyal to Beijing into Hong Kong is very high, making it unlikely. An intervention would cause a sharp fall in Chinese exports ...

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What does it mean for the RMB to “crack 7”?
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 05 Aug 2019
​• The RMB closed above 7 to the dollar today for the first time since before the financial crisis in 2008, and that was part of the currency’s steady appreciation path since July 2005. This is mainly about political signaling, and reflects the fact that Beijing has very few tools with which to r...

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What we can learn from the Baoshang takeover
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 07 Jul 2019
Special points to highlight in this issue: • The sudden takeover of Baoshang Bank on May 24 shocked markets and caused interbank interest rates to soar, probably because it suggested that lenders to Chinese banks might have to start taking responsibility for poor credit decisions. • Baoshang, h...

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Not much changed at the G20 meeting
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 01 Jul 2019
Special points to highlight in this issue: * Following the meetings in Osaka, markets have heaved sighs of relief, especially in China where the SCI 300 was up 2.9 percent today and where the agreement between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump has been presented as a triumph for Xi and a real reso...

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A change in Chinese demand for American soy
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 24 May 2019 1 response
As a follow up to my newsletter, it occurred to me that there may indeed be a change in Chinese demand for American soy over the next two years, but not because of trade sanctions. As everyone knows by now, China is suffering from a tremendous pork shortage thanks to the ravages of swine flu. A l...

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How China can and cannot retaliate on trade
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 23 May 2019
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The mood changed dramatically in China last week, with Beijing now angrily criticizing Washington for its role in the trade negotiations. * Beijing’s change of strategy should be seen primarily within a domestic political context. President X...

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Last year’s deep pessimism seems to have abated
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 19 Apr 2019 1 response
Special points to highlight in this issue: * While China’s first quarter GDP growth came in above expectations, at 6.4 percent year on year, this does not represent the recovery in the underlying economy that many analysts are claiming, not because the growth numbers are fake but simply bec...

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How to think about Chinese medium-term growth prospects
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 15 Mar 2019
Special points to highlight in this issue: • China’s two national political sessions last week set off a largely expected series of announcements and a huge amount of analysis, with nothing fundamentally changing. Beijing still faces the same constraints and the same set of adjustment scenarios....

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Are Chinese stock gains sustainable?
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 28 Feb 2019 2 responses
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Chinese stock market may well continue to deliver outsized returns for the rest of 2019, and if I had to bet, I would bet that it will perform well, but the recent rise has been all technical and there are no fundamental reasons driving the bull...

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