Country Analysts

Magdalena Barreiro
Former Finance Minister

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Year 2020: More of the same amidst a complicated political context
ECUADOR - Forecast 13 Jan 2020
The slowdown in the economy continued in Q3 2019 with scant growth of 0.1% q/q and a decrease of 0.1% y/y. With these results, 2019 GDP growth might confirm the negative 0.5% we expect, leaving an unsettling economic environment during an electoral year, when the government will have to continue ...

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Stick and carrot
ECUADOR - Report 24 Dec 2019
After the unsettling riots of last October, the Assembly has given stick and carrot to the government. First, a majority of over 70 votes denied the proposed economic bill sent by the Ministry of Finance as urgent at the beginning of November. Albeit there were political motives behind this den...

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The government submits a new tax reform
ECUADOR - In Brief 20 Nov 2019
Minister Martinez will be submitting today a new tax reform much leaner than the failed bill of last week. The new bill needs to have different proposals to be considered as new piece of legislation and be treated as urgent and be in effect next year. This reform if approved will help the governm...

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Indigenous groups stronger, Moreno weaker
ECUADOR - Forecast 18 Nov 2019 1 response
Despite a large national consensus regarding the complicity of the indigenous groups in the violent riots of last October, there is no doubt that they emerged stronger from the protests while Moreno and the government are now weaker than before. Democracy, if we believe is there one in Ecuador, e...

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Government Capitulates and Eliminates Decree 883
ECUADOR - In Brief 13 Oct 2019
After 12 days of violent confrontations, riots and several casualties, president Moreno held a negotiation meeting with CONAIE (Confederation of Indian Nationalities) in order to seek a solution to --what was already evident --an almost insoluble problem. The meeting counted with the mediation of...

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Severe and Dangerous Protests after the Presidential Decision to Eliminate Subsidies
ECUADOR - In Brief 08 Oct 2019 1 response
The last economic measures taken by President Moreno have been the root of violent protests in Ecuador. Albeit we expected social unrest, the level of violence we are witnessing on the streets and highways has no precedence, at least in the last decades. Social groups including the transportation...

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Moreno’s economic knock out
ECUADOR - Report 05 Oct 2019
Moreno took many by surprise announcing an elimination of fuel subsidies instead of the expected VAT increase requested by the IMF to comply with a 1.5% of GDP increase in revenues for next year.This measure needs no approval from the assembly and would render results starting this month if the g...

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In search of funds
ECUADOR - In Brief 24 Sep 2019
Minister Martinez announced two new international issues with maturities of 5 and 10 years (March 2025 and March 2030), respectively to complete financing for 2019. Our previous estimate for international financing was around $1.0 to $1.2 billion, but if two issues are being considered, then $1.5...

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The clock is ticking
ECUADOR - Report 17 Sep 2019 1 response
Low inflation rates of 0.14% (cumulative) and 0.33% (y/y), together with lower-than-expected tax collections as of September, and a large contraction in non-oil import growth, which fell from 16.6% to 2.2% as of July, speak of economic stagnation. The consumer confidence index also fell, to 36.2 ...

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