Country Analysts

Magdalena Barreiro
Former Finance Minister

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Too many doubts, too many delays, and a step back
ECUADOR - Report 14 Jan 2019
President Moreno has given preferential attention to the reconstruction of democratic institutions, achieving important even if insufficient outcomes. However, restoration of the macroeconomic and fiscal equilibrium still evidences weaknesses in its conceptual and practical development. A lack of...

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How different will be 2019 from 2018?
ECUADOR - Report 21 Dec 2018
Executive SummaryEcuador will close year 2018 with dismal y-o-y GDP growth of 1%, and the perspectives for 2019 are not more encouraging. The economic transition from the "Socialism of the 21st Century" to a more sustainable model will take place later rather than sooner due to an excessively cau...

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Moreno 2, Vice presidents 0
ECUADOR - In Brief 04 Dec 2018
Vice-President Maria Alejandra Vicunia, Vicepresident of Ecuador presented her resignation today after accusations of extortion of public servants during Correa’s government. Vicunia has not denied public servants made payments in exchange of public jobs, but she said those payments were “volunta...

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Nothing has been decided yet, but everything is being considered
ECUADOR - Forecast 17 Oct 2018 1 response
The second quarter of 2018 ended with a small recovery in growth from Q1, but we do not think it is a convincing sign of a full economic recovery. Year over year GDP grew 0.9%, and quarter over quarter it is up 0.4%. Spending – both government and household – is supporting this upward trend, incr...

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Following the right path, albeit too slowly
ECUADOR - Report 18 Sep 2018
Executive Summary Ecuador is one of the countries facing a humanitarian crisis of large proportions brought on by the massive exodus of millions of Venezuelans escaping from heart-breaking living conditions. Last week, President Moreno, represented by Minister of Foreign Affairs Jose Valencia, le...

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Fifteen-month labor
ECUADOR - Report 10 Aug 2018
Executive Summary Finally, after 15 months, Ecuador has an economic bill that, albeit with limitations and inconsistencies, approaches a different economic model from that established by President Correa. Emerging from the Correato has proven more difficult than expected for the new government, s...

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Full Employment Declines in Q2
ECUADOR - In Brief 18 Jul 2018
President Moreno will be sending his veto to the recently approved economic law today. In the meanwhile, INEC published the latest employment information that shows a decline in the quality and number of jobs between Q2 2017 and Q2 2018.In fact, 161,689 full-time jobs (adequate employment) were l...

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Thumbs up from the USA, thumbs down from Venezuela and Bolivia
ECUADOR - Forecast 13 Jul 2018
Executive Summary The Ecuadorian economy decreased 0.7% q/q in Q1 2018, but still grew 1.9% y/y (the lowest positive change since Q1 2016). The slowdown in recovery that started in Q3 2016 can be linked to a sharp decrease in public expenditure, which in Q1 2018 fell $2.63b q/q and $348m y/y. The...

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Power was absolute, but not everlasting
ECUADOR - Report 15 Jun 2018
Executive Summary Political events have evolved with amazing speed in Ecuador since May 2017, when President Moreno took office. The new president has managed to dismantle the almighty power structure of former President Correa, who finished as the “head of all powers” (as he referred to himself)...