ECUADOR
Analyst
Magdalena Barreiro
Former Finance MinisterDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
A gentle drizzle to calm the ongoing drought
ECUADOR · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024
The Republic closed an extended facility agreement with the IMF for the next 48 months for $4.0 billion. As of last March, we estimated needs of at least $3.5b to give some breathing space to the tight fiscal situation. This estimate was made before the new challenges Ecuador is facing due to the...
Expected victory amidst an energy crisis
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024
Ecudorians voted yesterday on the public referendum and consult for 11 questions, 9 of which are related to security and corruption issues, one to international arbitration for public contracts and one for labor hiring by the hour – these two questions are currently prohibited under the constitut...
Diplomatic impasse with unpredictable consequences
ECUADOR · Forecast · 08 Apr 2024
As we write this report, the world press is reporting on the trespass of the Mexican Embassy ordered by President Noboa last Friday night to capture former Vice Jorge President Glas, a convicted felon who should not have been a subject of the political asylum granted him by the Mexican government...
100 Days to Celebrate
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Mar 2024
President Daniel Noboa can celebrate his first 100 days in office with an 80% acceptance of his mandate—the highest level of popularity enjoyed by an Ecuadorian president. He moved fast on the right track to partially contain the dangerous insecurity and violence situation of last January and to...
Fast track administration
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Feb 2024
President Noboa has sent four emergency bills to congress since November, when he took office. The first one, containing a mild tax reform that according to the government might help raise $700 million this year, was approved by the Assembly with few changes. The second, aimed at improving the si...
Active legislative week with positive results
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024
After several weeks of discussions, agreements, and disagreements, there is finally a decision on the tax reform proposed by President Daniel Noboa to raise the VAT tax from 13% to 15%. His original proposal was not approved by the Assembly and after several debates, the plenary voted individuall...
State of war
ECUADOR · Report · 12 Jan 2024
President Noboa sent last night the third urgent economic bill, which has one purpose only: to raise the VAT from 12% to 15%. The rationale for the decision is the need to raise financing for expenditures associated with security and for the state of war dictated last Monday in response to nation...
Fiscal déjà vu
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Dec 2023
Last November the government had to resort to a loan from Corporacion Financiera Nacional to obtain $392 million to pay public sector salaries. This is an operation that is not at all clear as it is registered as bonds in the Central Bank. Such a situation was normal during the 1990s, but it seem...
RC, ADN and PSC share majority in CAL and Commissions
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Nov 2023
The government achieved what it was looking for with the political alliance that took place last week within the Assembly—control over the two main committees that decide the fate of the economically urgent bills that Noboa intends to make the axis of his government. They obtained four out of the...