Country Analysts

Magdalena Barreiro
Former Finance Minister

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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To raise or not to raise the VAT?
ECUADOR - Report 16 May 2019
Against all odds, Alianza Pais captured the presidency of the National Assembly with 78 votes – 40 from Alianza Pais, 18 from CREO and the remaining from Integracion Nacional in exchange for two vice-presidencies and at least two commissions that are under negotiation as of this writing. Cesar...

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Moreno under attack
ECUADOR - Report 25 Apr 2019
The Social Christian Party came out as the absolute winner of the recent local government elections, while the official party, Alianza Pais (AP), suffered a shameful defeat. This defeat was on President Moreno´s head, according to party members, as they felt like “political orphans” due to the la...

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Correa is not dead
ECUADOR - Forecast 25 Mar 2019
Ecuador finally signed an Extended Fund Facility agreement with the IMF, which will help the country return to a more sustainable economic model over the next three years. The IMF will provide $4.2 million of gradual financing during the life of the agreement, and other multilateral organizations...

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Agreement Number 19
ECUADOR - Report 21 Feb 2019 1 response
After much hesitation, the government reached an extended fund facility for $4.2 billion with the IMF, which according to President Moreno´s statement, will open the door to $6.0 billion from the World Bank, the IDB, CAF, the European Investment Bank, FLAR and the French Development Agency. This ...

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Too many doubts, too many delays, and a step back
ECUADOR - Report 14 Jan 2019
President Moreno has given preferential attention to the reconstruction of democratic institutions, achieving important even if insufficient outcomes. However, restoration of the macroeconomic and fiscal equilibrium still evidences weaknesses in its conceptual and practical development. A lack of...

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How different will be 2019 from 2018?
ECUADOR - Report 21 Dec 2018
Ecuador will close year 2018 with a dismal GDP y-o-y growth of 1% and perspectives for 2019 are not more encouraging. Economic transition from the Socialism of the 21st Century to a more sustainable model, will take place later than sooner due to an excessively cautious economic policy and to ...

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Moreno 2, Vice presidents 0
ECUADOR - In Brief 04 Dec 2018
Vice-President Maria Alejandra Vicunia, Vicepresident of Ecuador presented her resignation today after accusations of extortion of public servants during Correa’s government. Vicunia has not denied public servants made payments in exchange of public jobs, but she said those payments were “volunta...

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Nothing has been decided yet, but everything is being considered
ECUADOR - Forecast 17 Oct 2018 1 response
The second quarter of 2018 ended with a small recovery in growth from Q1, but we do not think it is a convincing sign of a full economic recovery. Year over year GDP grew 0.9%, and quarter over quarter it is up 0.4%. Spending – both government and household – is supporting this upward trend, incr...

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Following the right path, albeit too slowly
ECUADOR - Report 18 Sep 2018
Ecuador is one of the countries facing a humanitarian crisis of large proportions brought on by the massive exodus of millions of Venezuelans escaping from heart-breaking living conditions. Last week, President Moreno, represented by Minister of Foreign Affairs Jose Valencia, led an international...

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