Country Analysts

Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central Bank


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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What slowdown? The economy is overheating
HUNGARY - Report 15 May 2019
GDP growth accelerated to a new high in Q1 2019, in the face of the weak Eurozone economy. This looks like a regional phenomenon typical of Central and Eastern Europe: Poland, Romania and Hungary all reported GDP growth around 5% in the first quarter of this year. A relocation of output from West...

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Expect robust Q1 GDP data tomorrow
HUNGARY - In Brief 14 May 2019
Analysts expect 5.1% yoy GDP growth by unadjusted data for Q1 to come out from the KSH tomorrow at 9am BUD time. This would be unchanged from Q4 2018 and contrary to everyone's forecast that growth would slow down markedly in Hungary, following the European trend, this year. Even though there hav...

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Inflation rose further, core inflation down on a base effect in April
HUNGARY - In Brief 09 May 2019
Well, the analyst consensus proved to be a bit too pessimistic, whereas we were a bit too optimistic about April's CPI-inflation data, as it turned out this morning. However, the crucial point is that essentially everyone was right to expect rising inflation for the month.Specifically, the headli...

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Analysts expect CPI-inflation yet higher in April
HUNGARY - In Brief 08 May 2019
The April CPI-inflation data is due at 9am BUD time tomorrow. Analysts polled by expect the headline rate at 4% yoy, rising further from the 3.7% yoy measured for March.We feel this forecast is a little bit exaggerated in the negative direction. We expect +4.5% mom for fuel prices, o...

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The BOP deteriorated in early 2019
HUNGARY - In Brief 07 May 2019
On April 30, the Monetary Council's communiqué specifically said on the balance of payments: 'In February 2019, the current account balance improved, to which both the stable services balance and the renewed rise of the goods balance contributed.'This, somewhat loosely worded, brief statement was...

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No rating action, no new report from Moody's yesterday
HUNGARY - In Brief 04 May 2019
A certain part, though probably not the majority, of the market may be disappointed by the fact that Moody's did not take any action on their Baa3/Stable sovereign rating for Hungary at their pre-announced revision date yesterday. Moreover, Moody's did not even pick up the issue, missing the oppo...

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The MNB will start to buy corporate bonds in July
HUNGARY - In Brief 30 Apr 2019
Pretty much as we predicted yesterday (and others slightly earlier), the Monetary Council left all MNB interest rates untouched today, in addition to saying nothing new about the prospective use of FX swaps to tighten liquidity. Moreover, they made absolutely no mentioning of any need to tighten ...

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No policy change is likely at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting
HUNGARY - In Brief 29 Apr 2019
Following a relatively long Easter recess, during which nothing much happened in Hungary, except for the political theatre preceding the late May European election, economic decision-making is to become more active again. Tomorrow (on April 30), the Monetary Council's monthly rate-setting meeting...

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'Tightening' has made monetary conditions looser
HUNGARY - Forecast 17 Apr 2019 1 response
On March 26, the MNB carried out a small policy tightening, for the first time since December 2011. However, what was done fell short of the market’s expectations, and so it led to a moderately weaker forint and, consequently, to somewhat looser monetary conditions. This was because the MNB combi...

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